ELWASCI INTELLIGENCE

LIQUIDITY & CAPITAL FLOW

REPORT
Q2 2026 · 13-Week Structural OutlookAnalyst: HORUS (@horus_ews)March 24, 2026

AI-generated summary based on human analytical input.

Global liquidity conditions remain firmly expansionary heading into Q2 2026, supported by a strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY), tightening credit spreads via HYG vs LQD, and declining 10-year Treasury yields (TNX). This pro-growth backdrop supports an offensive portfolio tilt with elevated risk exposure and high conviction. The risk curve is broadening — small cap equities (IWM) are gaining relative strength versus the S&P 500 (SPX), while cryptocurrency market structure strengthens with a high-conviction shift toward OTHERS relative to TOTAL3, signaling renewed appetite for altcoins and deep-tier speculative assets. Cross-market signals confirm a growth-dominant macro environment. Gold (XAU) holds a bullish structure while Copper trends higher with lower conviction. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline toward 3.33% by year-end — a tailwind for equities and risk assets broadly.

01Executive Summary

Positioning overview

TiltOffensivePositioning favors growth and higher-beta assets.
Risk BiasElevatedGreater exposure to volatility and drawdown risk.
Cash BufferMinimalLow idle capital; majority deployed.
ConvictionHighStrong confidence in directional outlook and structure.
02Liquidity Conditions

Fuel layer — cost and availability of capital

METRICOUTLOOKCONFIDENCE
US Dollar Index ($DXY)
BULLISH
Very High
10Y Treasury Yield ($TNX)
BEARISH
Moderate
Credit ($HYG vs $LQD)
BULLISH
Very High
OVERALL LIQUIDITY STATUSEXPANSIONARY
03Risk Curve

Capital deployment — where money is flowing

RELATIONSHIPOUTLOOKCONFIDENCE
Small Caps vs S&P 500 ($IWM / $SPX)
OVERWEIGHT
High
Small Caps vs Micro Caps ($IWM / $IWC)
OVERWEIGHT
High
TOTAL vs TOTAL3
OVERWEIGHT
Moderate
OTHERS vs TOTAL3
OVERWEIGHT
Very High
Equities ParticipationBROAD
Crypto ParticipationBROAD

Overweight — expect stronger performance; positioning favors increased exposure this quarter.
Underweight — expect weaker performance; positioning favors reduced exposure this quarter.

OVERALL RISK CURVE STATUSBROADENING
04Cross-Market Signal

Macro appetite meter

METRICOUTLOOKCONFIDENCE
Gold ($XAU)
BULLISH
High
Copper ($COPPER)
BULLISH
Low
Gold vs Copper
NEUTRAL
Moderate
MACRO TONEGROWTH
05Asset Class Bias

Structural analysis + liquidity + risk curve alignment

EQUITIES
Minors and Mids present greater opportunity than majors.
CRYPTO
Majors rally, Meme desires grow, but Utilities growth minimized.
COMMODITIES
Desired for value growth and stability.
RATES
10Y yield likely to fall below 4%; 3.33% annual target.

This report reflects the analytical framework of Elwasci and while intended to be reliable in investing decisions, it is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
March 24, 2026 · Q2 2026